Drivers of real estate demand uncertainty in response to flood predictions in the UK

Flood model predictions are becoming increasingly available online through open access flood risk maps and communications. While these are important for flood management, their inherent uncertainty presents a considerable risk for real estate markets, a leading indicator of macroeconomic performance. We, therefore, need to understand the factors influencing real estate demand in an era of open access flood predictions. Here, we investigate the role of demographic factors, risk appetite, and flood awareness and experiences on coastal real estate demand in the UK in response to flood predictions. Our objective is test whether access to flood predictions is a leading driver of real estate demand or whether alternative factors influence how people perceive such predictions. We achieve this by applying an inter-disciplinary approach, involving numerical flood modelling, a novel willingness-to-pay real estate survey of UK residents in response to flood model outputs, statistical and geospatial modelling, and thematic analysis. Our preliminary findings indicate that property-related risk appetite (risk aversion) seems to be the leading driver of real estate demand uncertainty in response to flood predictions. Demographic factors such as age, gender, employment, and housing status also have some impact. Our preliminary findings suggest that we need to re-think how flood predictions are communicated in order to minimise real estate risks.