What's the Half-Life of the Economic Vote? (About a Year and a Half)

Sandwich Lunch provided

Economic voting theory assumes that voters focus their attention on the recent past. But testing this assumption is difficult and past research remains inconclusive. I estimate voters’ economic time frames using a new model that measures the economic vote and voter myopia at the same time. I show that voter myopia is real and that after around a year and a half, economic voting affects half in size. After five years, they approach zero. My findings have positive implications. Though they are myopic, voters appear able to hold governments accountable for economic management over the course of their tenure.